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It’s Interesting Up North

Screen shot 2010-02-26 at 22.52.39Russell Davies’ Interesting conference are something of an institution.  350 people cram into Conway Hall in London to hear interesting people talk about interesting things, ranging from Prozac-flavoured yoghurt, to a history of well-beloved ponies, to a live demonstration of the colour of Radio 4.  And that was just last year.

I’ve been to all three, taken photos of two and spoken at one.   And while they were all tremendous fun, all the Interesting conferences in the UK have taken place in London. With Russell’s blessing, it’s time to change that.

Interesting North will take place at some point this year somewhere that’s north of London and south of Edinburgh.  I’m not sure exactly where it will be, or when, or who will speak, or how much it will cost.   Those are all details that will get worked out between now and then, hopefully with the help of the kind of genial lunatics that make Interesting what it is.

So, this is a plea for help.  I’m going to need help to organise this, and I’m going to need interesting people to talk about interesting things to make it an Interesting day.  Give me a shout if you can help, and watch this space – and interestingnorth.com or interestingnrth – for further details.

26 February 2010

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links for 2010-02-25

  • The Animation object extends the Processing development environment. It's a new object which removes much of the tedious bookkeeping involved in creating graphical motion effects.
  • I am immersing myself into the world of dials and meters for FRED project and I wanted to share with you some of the lovely things we’ve unearthed in our research.
  • Augmented reality pundits, myself included, purport that the nascent technology will change our lives.  But really, that’s what technology is all about.  Even the lowly vacuum cleaner was sold as a way to free the housewife from her oppressive chores.
    A better question might be to ask how augmented reality will change our lives, and more importantly, how will it change our brains.  The brief snapshot of its effect in the story above was to illustrate the result of a ubiquitous computing environment.   But to truly understand, we have to go deeper into the actual brain matter and watch how AR might change it.
  • I've been reading and learning about non-speech audio feedback and how it might be used in NUI. A particularly good resource on the subject is a book that was being written by Bill Buxton and others in the early 90's, but was never finished called Auditory Interfaces: The Use of Non-speech Audio at the Interface – the unfinished book is on-line and free to read.

    There is a lot of ways to slice and dice the topic non-speech audio feedback, but one way of looking at it is in terms of signals and data representation.

26 February 2010

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Some random terrorism-related numbers

Keep Calm and Carry On-BlueHere are some numbers relating to Section 44 of the Terrorism Act, courtesy of the Home Office.

There have been 200,444 stop-and-searches in England, Wales and Scotland in 2009.

As a result of those searches, 965 arrests were made.   That’s 0.5% of the searches made – or, if you want it another way, 1 arrest per 208 searches.

Arrests don’t necessarily lead to charges, though.  I can’t find any figures to show how many charges arose from those S.44-related arrests, but the Home Office figures do tell us that there were 24 charges relating to terrorism legislation overall.

So let’s be generous, and assume that every charge arose as a result of a S.44 stop.  In practice, this isn’t the case, so the numbers will only get worse – but what the hell, why should common sense intrude on this exercise?  It doesn’t feature anywhere else, after all.

24 terrorism-related charges is a mere 0.01% of searches.  Or 1 terrorism-related charge per 8,351 searches.

But wait – just because you’re charged, doesn’t mean you’ll be prosecuted.  The police lay charges, but the Crown Prosecution Service decide whether to prosecute them. Only 12 of those 24 people charged were actually tried, which is 0.006 of the original searches, or 1 prosecution per 16,703 S.44 searches.

And one of those prosecutions failed, so we’ve got 11 convictions – 0.006%, or 1 conviction per 18,222 searches.

OK, now let’s play with some really made-up numbers.

Let’s assume that your average S.44 search takes 10 minutes.  I’ve never been stopped, but from what I’ve seen there’s a lot of paperwork involved so 10 minutes seems reasonable.   That’s 2,004,440 minutes, or 33,407 hours.

And I’ve never seen a search carried out by less than 2 police officers and 1 searchee, so we’re talking 100,221 man-hours in total – or 11.44 person-years if you prefer it like that.

Which works out at almost exactly one person-year of searches per conviction.   Assuming the two were related in the first place, of course – which they’re not.

I can’t put it any better than Franklin D. Roosevelt’s inauguration speech:

First of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself—nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.

Don’t have nightmares.

25 February 2010

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Rules of The Game

I’ve been thinking a bit more about *how* The Game could operate. Not the “what”, exactly, but more about the underlying behaviour. I’m no expert on gaming, so I don’t know how much of this is the bleedin’ obvious – but it strikes me that there are a number of facets that need to be right in order for the whole process to work:

competition

There needs to be some level of competition between players, or between groups of players. Perhaps not in an overly overt “I can run faster / jump higher / kill more than you”, but it must at least be able to provide an incentive to improve and see how you’re performing against others. And there needs to be some competition with yourself, as well.

cooperation

At the same time as competition, there needs to be cooperation. I’m not sure whether this should be formal – you’re a member of a team; or informal – you help people as you go along. Maybe a mix of both – I like the idea of casual assistance, but there’s also something attractive about being part of a larger group with common aims. It seems that the trick here would be to avoid high transaction costs for a team, so that it doesn’t become an onerous task to coordinate.

completability

I hate games that just continue the same thing ad infinitum, just getting harder and harder. So there needs to be completable elements in there – not just “you’ve done this level, move onto the next”, but something more mission-oriented.

sustainability

At the same time as being completable, that needs to fit into a context of continuity – so that there’s some reason for me to keep coming back time after time without needing to start from scratch.

lightness of interaction

I envisage a lot of gameplay taking place in short chunks of downtime – waiting for a bus, idling away five minutes with a coffee, that sort of thing. So it’s not got to be *too* involved – I don’t want to miss my bus because I was engrossed.

geographic variability

If there’s a location-based component that relies on interactions with other people, it’s got to have enough hysteresis to allow for scenarios where you’re the only player at that spot. As far as I can tell, I’m pretty much the only person on my bus with an iPhone, so if the game relies on another iPhone user being at my bus stop, it’s not going to fly. I need to be able to alter my game horizon to take account of this.

25 February 2010

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Too Big To Succeed

William Heath has put up a post called “What the smart government IT supplier needs to say in 12 weeks’ time“. I started a comment there which grew to the size of a post, so I figured I might as well put it up here as well.

He asks the question:

“Now: here’s the crux. Britain’s new post-election government may be pretty hostile to its IT suppliers. Whichever colour it is it faces the same problems, but let us assume for sake of argument it is Conservative.

Relations have not improved since the unseemly spat between Intellect and David Davies over ID System contracts. Big IT suppliers and their big bills are definitely seen as “part of the problem” in Tory HQ, as is the trade association, and an ineffectual (overpromoted/overpaid) CIO culture and the excessively big, out-of control IT projects they have cooked up.

What is a smart government IT supplier to do in this situation?”

I suspect that the big IT houses are going to be having more and more conversations with people like James Gardner, a former banker who is now Chief Technology Officer at the Department for Work and Pensions.

Earlier this month he posted about his experiences of spending a week in a Job Centre somewhere in the Rust Belt of Scotland.

Apologies for quoting from his post at length, but I think this is a significant illustration of a mind shift taking place:

“But here is another thing I’ve found in this Job Centre, and it is something I’m not surprised about.

Staff build their own stuff to get around the limitations of systems we provide. There are Excel based spreadsheets which are used for diary management (“oh, I can’t have this open too long, otherwise no-one else will be able to make appointments”). There is email based workflow, where each step is a new inbox that gets manually monitored. And there’s any number of self-made data capturing things that are used for statistics and business reporting.

And all of it is stitched together with another technology: paper. They create their own forms, and their own paper based systems in order to supplement their jobs.

Consequently, the work is processed in a highly efficient way. I’d make a guess that each JobCentre does things slightly differently, depending on how good their custom additions to each of our centrally provided processes are.

If there was ever proof needed that decentralisation of the core is a good thing, then I’ve been immersed in it for the week so far.

I wonder what would happen if we put the appropriate end-user computing tools in the hands of these people and said “design the perfect Job Centre system”. My guess would be something good.”

Having been involved in the peripheries of Big Projects in the past, I’ve often wondered if the reason that they fail is linked to their sheer size and the capacity of an ordinary human being to cope with the scale.

Beyond a certain size, it seems that the probability of success by any definition tends to zero, and no amount of tinkering with the political complexions or terminology or methodology-of-the-month will change that.

At some point in history, the processes that cause these problematic systems to be created in the first place either didn’t exist, or were paper-based. That suggests a couple of questions.

Perhaps if the processes didn’t exist before IT, they can’t exist after IT – because they’re too large and complex to be administered in the first place.

And maybe moving from paper to digital processes doesn’t actually increase efficiency once you account for the eleventy-billion pound cost of the digital process itself.

Sure, there’s a superficial improvement by virtue of being able to call up a record on the screen rather than retrieve it from a shelf somewhere – but the true cost of the operation is a lot greater than the immediately-apparent interaction would suggest.

I spent half an hour yesterday trying to update a gas bill online, and failing because the British Gas system didn’t like the combination of address and name on the account. Talking (eventually) to a call centre agent, it turns out that this is a routine problem for them.

Viewed simplistically, the online process is a Good Thing, because it’s more (apparently) efficient. But viewed holistically, it’s a disaster, because it’s creating additional work for both customer AND organisation. The issue is that the process won’t ever be seen holistically, because the organisation isn’t taking into account my contribution.

What all this suggests – it’s just my gut feel, I’ve no empirical evidence to back this up other than a hunch – is that the days of the monumentally collossal top-down design is over, simply because they’re too expensive and too complex to work.

That the future is more likely to consist of patchworks of systems – and a realisation that apparent inefficiencies aren’t actually curable without spending more time and money than was wasted in the first place.

25 February 2010

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links for 2010-02-23

24 February 2010

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Robbery for fun and profit

Another day, another Daily Mail-esque panic about how social networking is causing the downfall of modern society as we know it. This time it’s pleaserobme.com, a site that scrapes location-based services such as Foursquare and Gowalla and publicises the fact that you’re – shock, horror – not at home.

It’s a clever idea, but it does of course rely on a certain amount of coding skill to be able to set it up in the first place.

So, in the spirit of opening the web to wider participation, I’m putting *my* method of figuring out which house is worth robbing into the public domain. No copyright, no patents, fully Creative Commonsed for your remixing pleasure of this simple four-step process.


Step One.

Drive or walk around your intended target area during the hours of darkness, and make careful note of houses with cars parked outside.

Step Two.

Return the following day during office hours, and carefully note the location of those houses which no longer have cars parked outside.

Step Three.

Break into those houses which are sans-car – the owners are likely to be out.

Step Four.

Profit!


You’ll notice that *my* process has no internet component, unless you want to keep those notes in a Google spreadsheet or something.

Clearly the ease with which I – and you, with a little training and practice – can detect which houses are potentially empty is a serious threat to the cohesion of modern society, so I fully expect that insurance companies will react accordingly. I’m looking forward to reading the press releases which mutter darkly about how people who have the temerity to park their cars outside their houses will see their insurance premiums rise to counter this threat.

And no doubt the Daily Mail will start a campaign to ban the use of non-garage parking – isn’t it better to be safe than sorry, after all?

Unfortunately this is just another demonstration of how “internet” somehow gets equated with “new” when it comes to potential risks. The additional risk posed to your belongings by posting your whereabouts on Gowalla is so small as to be impossible to calculate, however much the actuaries would love to try. If we stopped to contemplate every risk of this type, we’d cower in corners and never go anywhere – let alone multiplying them by the bogeyman factor of teh Interwebs.

It’s lazy journalism at best, and lazy thinking if you *do* take it too seriously.

Oh, and if you are planning on using my Gowalla checkins to work out when you can pop round to relieve me of my belongings, there’s a couple of things you should bear in mind. Firstly, just because I’m out it doesn’t necessarily follow that my house is empty. And secondly, be sure to introduce yourself to my large, snarly and (potentially) bitey dog while you’re round…

23 February 2010

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